Rain forecasting in NYC?

Question

I need to have some work done at my home and the contractor says that they need 48 hours before and after the work with no rain.  As far as I can tell, they would need to forecast 96 hours (or at least 4 days, the work will only take an hour or two) without rain in order for the contractor to work.  

My question, what is the likelihood that the FORECAST will show no rain for 4 consecutive days during July and August in the northeast of the US?  I have a feeling that the probability is nearly 0.  The 10 day forecast is showing at least a 10% chance of rain for the next 10 days (weather.com). 

Is there any chance a forecast might show 4 consecutive days without rain?

TQ · Accepted Answer

Based on climatology for NYC...on average it rains 10 days in July and 10 days in August (each day has a 32% chance of measurable precipitation).

So far this month...NYC has observed measurable precipitation on eight out of 23 days (35%).

The was only one stretch of at least four days where no rain fell (9th through 13th).

There's nothing in the long-range model forecast out to Day 10 showing any significant change in the current weather pattern.

SEP and OCT are the two months with the fewest average number of rain days (8).
Home repair may have to wait until then.

cyswxman · Answer

On an overall average, the odds are not promising.  During July and August rain is recorded in NYC an average of about 1 day in 3, or every third day.  That's an average, meaning sometimes it's more frequent while other times less.  I don't know how much advance notice the contractor needs, but one could in the short term see a potential dry period coming up giving you the 4 needed days, but it would be hard to see in the long term.

new_bumble_bee · Answer

Just look at the weather forecasting sites plus the weather satellite 📡 to see if there's any storm system close but the best way to know if there's a storm coming especially in the warmer weather summer months is to look at your garbage bin 🚮 in the morning and see if there's any moisture there - if there's just a little bit then you may just cop a shower but if there's puddles of water 💦 there then likely To cop some rain ☔ or at least some heavy showers

Anonymous · Answer

Srange.

Anonymous · Answer

You're a fat, useless sack of yanky, danky doodle shite buttphuck

Anonymous · Answer

Go and KILL YOURSELF, CASEY Y. Do the world a favour.

Anonymous · Answer

NO!

Rain forecasting in NYC?

7 Answers