What are some good predictors of high unemployment?

Question

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has unemployment rates going back to 1948 http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000 so let's look at some 1948-2014 data.

A) Years Republicans led the House, Senate and White House averaged 13% lower unemployment than years Democrats had all three (p<0.25)
    B) Sorting those years by Federal spending/GDP ratio: The high-spending half averages 36% higher unemployment that the low-spending half. (p<0.0025)
    C) Sorting those years by real per-capita revenue to the Treasury: The high-revenue half averages 20% higher unemployment that the low-revenue half. (p<0.15)
    D) Sorting years by minimum-wage and splitting as close to the middle as possible: With minimum-wage of $3.10 or less, unemployment averaged 19% lower than at $3.35 or more. (p<0.0020)

So, decreasing GOP policy control, raising taxes, increased spending and high minimum-wage are all known PREDICTORS of rising unemployment.
What OTHERS are you aware of? ANY that Democrats don't demand?

? · Answer

You really should separate your analysis to go from 1948-1981 and then from 1981-2014.  Republicans, beginning with Reagan, radically morphed into their laissez-faire attitude.

Nixon, for example, instituted wage and price controls.  That's communism according to today's GOP.  So it's really a meaningless result if you don't separate it in some fashion.

? · Answer

1948-1981 = 17% lower with GOP control
1981-2014 = 33% lower with GOP control

Sageandscholar · Answer

Of course spending will be higher when unemployment is higher - that is a standard response to a recession.
When you cannot even determine what is cause and what is effect you have no business presenting any data analysis.

Biff · Answer

The US economy is vastly different now than it was when min wage was $3.35

What are some good predictors of high unemployment?

4 Answers